SEA Guidance Annex 9

Developing Scenarios

Scenario development is a core element of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), helping planners anticipate uncertainties, test the robustness of PPPs, and explore how different future conditions may influence environmental and social outcomes. Annex 9 outlines the step-by-step process for building scenarios.

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What’s Inside This Annex

Developing Scenarios

Scenarios are a technique for presenting alternative views of the future. Scenario development deals with “what if?” questions and helps clarify a vision of the way ahead, capable of modification but allowing progress.

Constructing Scenarios

Constructing scenarios enables the feasibility and effectiveness of a proposed PPP or its alternatives to be evaluated in different future conditions. There are four main steps involved in constructing scenarios.

Scenario Building and Assessment

The process of scenario building should raise awareness of uncertainties, risks, and constraints that could be encountered in the future. The “worst case” scenario and the “do nothing” (or “business as usual”) scenario should be identified.

Download the full PDF annex for more information, including the step-by-step process and an example scenario.

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SEA Guidance Annex 9