SEA Guidance Annex 11

Trend Analysis

Trend analysis is a core Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) approach for understanding how conditions change over time and how a proposed PPP might alter those trajectories. This annex explains how to interpret past and current trends, project future trends with and without the PPP, and factor in other drivers such as markets, other plans, and climate change.

overview

What’s Inside This Annex

What Is Trend Analysis in SEA?

For conducting many SEAs, trend analysis is likely to be one of the most useful approaches. Trend analysis can be defined as an interpretation of changes over time without and with the proposed/revised PPP (policy, plan, or program).

What It Helps With

It can help to describe the past trends and current situation, help in predicting future “baseline” trends without the proposed PPP being implemented, and facilitate the assessment of cumulative impacts of proposed developments in the PPP.

Tools and Presentation

The presentation of trends can be fairly simple, e.g., storylines that describe the overall trends, maps showing spatial development patterns, and graphs illustrating the evolution of key issues and/or their drivers over time.

Focus of the Analysis

SEA requires consideration of long-term trends, and it is recommended to concentrate on the main environmental and social issues, objectives, and guiding questions that have been identified in the preceding SEA scoping step.

Download the Full Annex

Download the full PDF annex to view fictional examples of a trends analysis for past trends and future trends. Tips for practice are also provided to guide information collection, analysis, and interpretation.

Download Annex 11

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SEA Guidance Annex 11